32 Factorial Design and Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in West Africa
Richard Ayamah,
Samuel Kwarteng,
Awudu Obeng,
Patrick Kwame Babah
Issue:
Volume 6, Issue 2, June 2021
Pages:
17-28
Received:
8 May 2021
Accepted:
25 May 2021
Published:
4 June 2021
Abstract: The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research is therefore aimed at using experimental design to derive a model for the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa. In effect, 32 factorial design with mixed factors was used to design the data layout with country as the random factor and status of COVID-19 patient as the fixed factor. Under country, Nigeria, Senegal and Ghana were randomly selected as the three levels from the seventeen West African countries while under status of COVID-19 patient, recovery, death and active cases were the three fixed levels used. The data for the study were collected based on the monthly recorded number of the various COVID-19 cases (i.e. recovery cases, death cases and active cases out of the total confirmed cases) for the period from February to September, 2020. The data were retrieved from the reports on COVID-19 given by the respective country’s health authorities and published on their various websites. In effect, a mixed effect model was derived through formulation processes for the prediction of the various COVID-19 cases across West Africa. Also, different residual analyses were conducted for the model adequacy checking and it proved that the model was adequate in the estimation of the various COVID-19 cases in the West African Sub-region. This therefore makes it the first time experimental design and analysis has successfully been used for a study of this nature on the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa.
Abstract: The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research is therefore aimed at using experimental design to derive a model for the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa. In effect, 32 factorial design with mixed factors was used to design the data layout with ...
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Modelling the Dynamics of Endemic Malaria Disease with Imperfect Quarantine and Optimal Control
Dereje Gutema Edossa,
Alemu Geleta Wedajo,
Purnachandra Rao Koya
Issue:
Volume 6, Issue 2, June 2021
Pages:
29-55
Received:
20 May 2021
Accepted:
7 July 2021
Published:
16 July 2021
Abstract: Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasite and it is transmitted among humans through bites of female Anopheles mosquitoes. In this paper, a new deterministic mathematical model for the endemic malaria disease transmission that incorporates imperfect quarantine and optimal control is proposed. Impact of various intervention strategies in the community with varying population at time t are analyzed using mathematical techniques. Further, the model is analyzed using stability theory of differential equations and the basic reproduction number is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Conditions for local and global stability of disease free, local stability of endemic equilibria and bifurcations are determined in terms of the basic reproduction number. The Center manifold theory is used to analyze the bifurcation of the model. It is shown that the model exhibit both a backward and a forward bifurcation. Reducing the biting rate of the quarantined people is advice able to minimize the spread of endemic malaria disease. The optimal control is designed by applying Pontryagins’s Maximum Principle (PMP) with four control strategies namely, insecticide treated nets, screening, treatment and indoor residual spray. The best strategy to control endemic malaria disease is the combination that incorporated all four control strategies.
Abstract: Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasite and it is transmitted among humans through bites of female Anopheles mosquitoes. In this paper, a new deterministic mathematical model for the endemic malaria disease transmission that incorporates imperfect quarantine and optimal control is proposed. Impact of various intervention stra...
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